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卡雷吉恩 报告（2016/5/27）
KnowVera Research
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The Kalayjian Report
Stephen Kalayjian, co-founder of KnowVera Research and creator of Pattern Recognition 101 and premium trading services, has over 35 years of trading experience.
史蒂芬.卡雷吉恩， KnowVera Research 的合伙创办人， Pattern Recognition 101(模式识别101课程)，和专家级交易服务的创立者，拥有35年的专业交易，以及超过二十亿股的交易经验
Low Volume, All Eyes Waiting on 8:30am GDP Number
低成交量，明早翘首以盼GDP数值
U.S. Equity Markets
美股市场
导读：一周前我表示过美股市场正在进入超卖条件中，在周线图上也有漂亮的正分歧图形。我表示过我期待这个超卖条件会通过1-4周来消除。史蒂芬目前在股票雷达的交易账号是@StephenKalayjian，炒美股的朋友赶紧订阅吧，史蒂芬可是大师级的人物哦！
I am currently on the sidelines in the U.S. equity markets.
我目前对美股市场持观望态度
A couple weeks ago I stated that the U.S. equity markets were at a significant oversold condition with a beautiful positive divergence pattern on the weekly charts. I stated that I expected this oversold condition to be worked off over the next 1-4 weeks. We are now into the second week and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has rallied over 550 points from the May 19th low of 17,331.07 to a high of 17,891.71 on May 25th.
一周前我表示过美股市场正在进入超卖条件中，在周线图上也有漂亮的正分歧图形。我表示过我期待这个超卖条件会通过1-4周来消除。我们现在已经进入了第二周，道琼斯也从5月19日的17331.07开始上涨了近550点，在5月25日达到了17891.71的高点。
I still have buy signals on the weekly charts for the exchange traded funds which mirror the U.S. equity markets. The exchange traded funds which mirror the U.S. equity markets include DIA (Dow Jones Industrial Average), QQQ (NASDAQ Composite), SPY (S&P 500) and IWM (Russell 2000). With yesterday’s close I got a buy signal on the daily chart for IWM and QQQ. I still have a buy signal on the daily chart for SPY. If DIA closes above the 179.59 level I will get a buy signal on the daily chart. The U.S. equity markets are now somewhat overbought on the daily charts. The U.S. equity markets are a little overextended after this huge rally in such a short period of time. I am now expecting a pullback in the U.S. equity markets, possibly bringing the Dow Jones Industrial Average into the 17,050-17,550 range.
我仍然在周线图上仍然有正向ETF的抛售信号。这些正向ETF包括：DIA (道琼斯指数), QQQ (纳斯达克指数), SPY (标普500指数), IWM (罗素2000). 随着昨天的交易结束，我在日线图上收到了IWM和QQQ的购买信号。我仍然在日线图上有SPY的购买信号。如果DIA报收高于179.59，我会在日线图上收到抛售信号.美股市场现在在日线图上已经是一些超买状态了。美股市场在这次大上涨后，在日线图上已经有一点力不从心了。我预计美股市场会出现下跌，可能将道琼斯工业平均指数带入17050-17550范围
If SPY closes below the 195.65 level on a weekly basis I will get a sell signal on the weekly chart. The 195.65 level on SPY is equivalent to approximately the 16,600 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. I expect the uptrend in the U.S. equity markets to remain intact until these levels are broken. There are five gaps below on the daily chart for SPY down to the 182.86 level, equivalent to the 15,500 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Eventually these gaps will get filled.
如果SPY收低于195.65水平，在周线图上我就会收到一个抛售信号，其大约等于带琼斯的16600水平位。我预计美股市场的上升态势会完好无缺，直到这些水平位被打破。SPY下方有五处裂口，相等于道琼斯指数的15500范围。这些裂口一定会被填平
The U.S. equity markets seem to be thinking that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will choose to raise the federal funds rate at their June meeting. I would respectfully disagree with this decision; however I believe there is a 60% chance they will choose to hike rates at their June meeting. If the FOMC does choose to raise the federal funds rate it would be with the goal to help the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank (ECB) by strengthening the U.S. dollar. A stronger U.S. dollar would weaken the Yen and the Euro. The weaker the Yen and the Euro are the more attractive European and Japanese exports become. The hope is that an increase in exports would give a boost to their economies. An increase in the federal funds rate would also result in a decline in commodity prices as the U.S. dollar strengthens.
美股市场看起来认为联邦公开市场委员会会选择在六月会议上调升利率。我会尊敬的表示对这个决定发表不同意的意见。我相信有60%的几率他们会选择提升利率。如果FOMC确实选择了调升利率，一定是为了通过强振美元来帮助欧洲央行和日本银行。一个更强的美元会削弱日元和欧元，这样日本和欧洲的出口商品就会变得更有吸引力，进而提升他们的经济。提升联邦基金利率也会导致大宗商品价格降低，随着美元升值。
A decision to raise the federal funds rate would not be based on strong economic data. Corporate earnings have been lackluster, the first estimate of 2016 first-quarter U.S. GDP was reported at a mere 0.5%, and the Federal Reserve’s inflation target has not been met. In addition many companies are now in cost cutting mode, signaling that more job cuts are likely. Today it was announced that MSFT (Microsoft Corporation) will lay off up to 1,850 workers and INTC will cut 300-350 jobs in Germany.
这次可能调升联邦基金利率的决定不会是建立在强健的经济数据上。企业业绩一直乏善可陈，美国经济2016年第一季度GDP报告仅仅为0.5%增速，美联储通胀目标也没有达到。进一步讲，很多公司都进入了削减成本模式，预示着更多的工作岗位削减即将到来。今天MSFT (Microsoft Corporation)宣布其会裁剪最多1850位员工，INTC也会在德国裁剪300-350个工作岗位。
At 8:30am durable goods orders for April were reported. In April durable goods orders increased by 3.4%, much high than the expected 0.3%. This increase was largely due to car manufacturer creating high incentive programs because of a stockpile in inventories. In addition most dealerships currently have low interest rates. Durable goods orders ex-transportation increased by 0.4%, in-line with expectations.
今早8：30，4月份的耐用品订单发布了报告，在4月耐用品上升了3.4%，比预期的0.3%远远较高。这次上涨主要归功于汽车产商的高刺激项目来消除高存货。进一步讲，大多数汽车销售商现在有较低的利率，也对销售额有了一定帮助。耐用品订单（排除交通用品）的增长量仅仅为0.4%，与预期符合。
Tomorrow at 8:30am the second estimate of 2016 first-quarter GDP will be released. The second estimate is expected to be reported at 0.9%. The Federal Reserve has spent over 4.5 trillion dollars on quantitative easing and the first estimate of 2016 first-quarter GDP was reported at an anemic 0.5%. At 1:15pm tomorrow Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will give a speech at Harvard.
明天早上8：30分，2016年第一季GDP的第二次预测会公布。第二次预期的数值可能为0.9%。美联储花费了4.5万亿美元在量化宽松上，但是第一次预测仅仅为0.5%。在下午1：15分美联储主席耶伦会在哈佛大学发表讲话。
There was very light volume today in the U.S. equity markets. The daily average volume over the last three months for SPY has been 97 million shares. Today only about 48 million shares were traded.The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 23.22 (-0.13%) at 17,828.29, the NASDAQ Composite closed up 6.88 (0.14%) at 4,091.77, the S&P 500 closed down 0.44 (-0.02%) at 2,090.10, and the Russell 2000 closed down 1.31 (-0.12%) at 1,139.71.
今天美股的成交量非常少。SPY的日平均交易量在过去的三个月里有9700万股。今天仅仅为4800万股。截止今日收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数下跌了23.22，报117,828.29点，跌幅为0.13%；纳斯达克综合指数上涨了6.88点，报4,091.77,点。涨幅为0.14%。标准普尔500指数下跌了0.44，报2,090.10,点，跌幅为0.02%。罗素2000指数下跌了1.31，报1,139.71点，跌幅为-0.12%
Kalayjian Signals
卡雷吉恩信号
卡雷吉恩信号
MDRX (Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc.):Sell Signal on Daily Chart (05/20/16)
MDRX (Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, Inc.): 日线图上的卖出信号(05/20/16)
Entries: 13.21 (filled), 13. 43, 13.66建仓档位：: 13.21 (建仓档位), 13. 43, 13.66
Stop: 13.99 止损价13.99
Status: Covered at 12.99 (+0.22) 状态：在12.99反补（+0.22）
XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/25/16)
XLK (The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund): 日线图上的购买信号（05/25/16）
Entries: 43.10, 42.73, 42.37 建仓档位：43.10, 42.73, 42.37
Stop: 41.86 止损价：41.86
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
HL (Hecla Mining Co.):Sell Signal on Daily Chart (05/25/16)
HL (Hecla Mining Co.): 日线图上的卖出信号(05/25/16)
Entries: 4.00 (filled), 4.13(filled), 4.26(filled) 建仓档位：4.00 (已成交), 4.13已成交), 4.26已成交)
Stop: 4.43 止损价：4.43
Status: Covered 3 at average price of 4.03 (+0.10 per entry) 以40.03反补三笔（+0.1每笔）
SAN (Banco Santander, S.A.):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
SAN (Banco Santander, S.A.): 日线图上的购买信号（05/25/16）
Entries: 4.84 (filled), 4.75, 4.67 建仓档位：4.84 (已成交), 4.75, 4.67
Stop: 4.55 止损价：4.55
Status: Long at 4.84 状态：在4.84多头
OAS (Oasis Petroleum Inc.):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
OAS (Oasis Petroleum Inc.): 日线图上的购买信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 10.02, 9.58, 9.14 建仓档位：10.02, 9.58, 9.14
Stop: 8.52 止损价：8.52
Status: No Fills 状态：没有成交
NOK (Nokia Corporation):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
NOK (Nokia Corporation): 日线图上的购买信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 5.49, 5.40, 5.31建仓档位：5.49, 5.40, 5.31
Stop: 5.18 止损价：5.18
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
BAC (Bank of America Corporation):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
BAC (Bank of America Corporation): 日线图上的购买信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 14.66, 14.41, 14.16 建仓档位：14.66, 14.41, 14.16
Stop: 13.81 止损价：13.81
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
IWM (iShares Russell 2000 ETF): 日线图上的购买信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 112.48, 111.38, 110.28 建仓档位：112.48, 111.38, 110.28
Stop: 108.73 止损价：108.73
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust):Buy Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
QQQ (PowerShares QQQ Trust): 日线图上的购买信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 108.26, 107.28, 106.30 建仓档位：108.26, 107.28, 106.30
Stop: 104.93 止损价：104.93
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
SRC (Spirit Realty Capital, Inc.):Sell Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
SRC (Spirit Realty Capital, Inc.): 日线图上的卖出信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 11.47, 11.63, 11.78 建仓档位：11.47, 11.63, 11.78
Stop: 11.99 止损价：11.99
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
TLN (Talen Energy Corporation):Sell Signal on Daily Chart (05/26/16)
TLN (Talen Energy Corporation): 日线图上的卖出信号(05/26/16)
Entries: 11.45, 11.79, 12.12 建仓档位：11.45, 11.79, 12.12
Stop: 12.59 止损价：12.59
Status: No Fills 状态：未成交
Crude Oil
原油
I am now looking at the July futures contract (CLN16) for WTI crude oil. I am currently on the sidelines in crude oil.I am no longer looking to short crude oil. Crude oil is extremely overbought on both the daily and weekly charts. I am waiting for this move to the upside to become exhausted for an opportunity to short crude oil.
我目前注意七月的WTI原油期货合同(CLN16)。我目前对原油市场持观望态度，不再寻求做空原油。原油同时在周线图和日线图上处于极度超买条件。我等待这次向上移动来消耗能量，为做空原油提供机会。
Disruptions to crude oil production primarily in Canada and Africa has resulted in a decline in supply by about 3.4 million barrels daily. Crude oil pushed up to a new 2016 high of 50.21 early this morning. Crude oil sold off sharply towards the end of the day.
原油产量因为加拿大和阿富汗的原因遭到中断，产量下跌了每天340万桶的数量。原油在今天上涨达到了2016年新高50.21.原油在今天晚些时候遭到了抛售而下跌。
Gold
黄金
I would be looking to short gold if it pushes up into the 1,255-1,290 range using a 1,305 stop.
我会寻找做空黄金，条件是其价格上涨到了1255-1290，止损价为1305.
I have been looking for a bounce in gold. The stochastic is rolling over on the weekly chart for gold. In addition I have a sell signal on the daily chart for gold and the exchange traded fund GLD. I am expecting another move down in gold. UBS is calling for gold to trade down to the 1,150 level.
我在等待黄金反弹。随机性指数在周线图上反转。进一步讲，我在日线图上有黄金和ETF-GLD的抛售信号。我期待黄金再一次下跌。UBS预测黄金会下跌到1150范围。
The Federal Reserve does not like when gold rallies. Raising the federal funds rate in June to help the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank would also result in lower commodity prices as the U.S. dollar strengthens.
美联储不会喜欢黄金升值。提升联邦基金利率来帮助日本央行和欧洲央行会导致更低的大宗商品价格，因为美元升值的关系。
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